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A supply chain professional's guide to thriving in uncertainty

Robert Cowan
tst
In a world where tariffs can reshape industries, supply chain professionals must become forensic investigators of their own networks.

Uncertain geopolitical landscapes can change quickly. Trade tensions can arise rapidly while environmental regulations tighten across regions. Supply chains that seemed reliable a few months ago might now face added complexities. 

For supply chain professionals, the temptation to react quickly—to re-engineer entire networks, pivot suppliers or overhaul strategies—has never been stronger. But in this age of perpetual disruption, the counterintuitive truth is this: sometimes the smartest approach is to take your time. 

Today's professionals must master the art of strategic patience while building systems robust enough to weather whatever storm comes next. The winners will be those who respond most intelligently and avoid a knee-jerk reaction. 

Here are three tips for today’s supply chain professional: Be inquisitive, avoid working in silos and make sustainable decisions. Let’s dive into each topic. 

Power of strategic curiosity 

In a world where tariffs can reshape entire industries overnight, supply chain professionals must become forensic investigators of their own networks. This means developing what we might call "strategic curiosity" or an almost anthropological fascination with understanding the deep structures that support global commerce. 

Consider the deceptively simple concept of "country of origin," where the reality is far more complex. Country of origin can vary dramatically between nations, influenced by everything from specific trade agreements, value-added or transformation thresholds to specific manufacturing processes. A component might be "made in Vietnam" for U.S. trade purposes but considered "Chinese origin" under European Union regulations. Understanding these nuances isn't academic. It's the difference between smooth operations and customs nightmares. 

This curiosity must extend beyond regulatory frameworks to the physical realities of your supply network. Many professionals operate with only a shallow understanding of their suppliers. They know their direct suppliers but remain unsighted to their suppliers' suppliers.  

Supply chains will continue to be globally interconnected. A semiconductor shortage in Taiwan or a labor dispute in Bangladesh will cascade through multiple tiers to disrupt operations thousands of miles away. 

The most successful supply chain leaders are those who peel back the layers of their networks and drill down into the most important areas: Where exactly are our critical components manufactured, tested, packed, stored and distributed from? Who are our suppliers' key suppliers? What are our vital freight lanes? What happens if this specific factory shuts down? Doing this hard work demonstrates your professional competence in an age of complexity. 

Technology makes this detective work both easier and more crucial. Digital mapping tools can visualize supply networks with unprecedented clarity, while AI-powered analytics can identify hidden vulnerabilities and single points of failure. But technology is only as good as the questions we ask it and the data available to it. 

The most sophisticated supply chain visibility platform in the world is useless if you're not curious enough to probe its insights and if it doesn’t have access to the right data. 

Breaking down the silos 

The traditional corporate structure, with its departmental boundaries and chains of command, is spectacularly ill-suited for modern supply chain management. In an era where a single regulatory change can affect procurement, logistics, finance and compliance simultaneously, the silo mentality isn't effective. 

Consider the complexity of tariff management. This touches every corner of the organization. Finance teams need to understand cost implications and cash flow impacts. Logistics specialists must evaluate alternative routing options. Procurement professionals need to assess supplier diversification strategies. Marketing teams might need to communicate supply constraints to customers. Working in isolation, each department optimizes for its own metrics, often creating suboptimal outcomes for the wider organization. 

The most effective supply chain organizations have institutionalized cross-functional collaboration. They hold regular calls that bring together stakeholders from trade compliance, finance, information technology, procurement, sales, operations and logistics to address complex issues collectively. These aren't just meetings; they're information-sharing platforms that prevent siloed decision-making and identify opportunities that might otherwise be missed. 

This collaborative approach extends beyond formal structures. Successful supply chain professionals cultivate relationships across departmental boundaries, understanding that today's finance question might be tomorrow's logistics challenge. They speak multiple organizational languages, translating supply chain constraints into business impacts that resonate with different stakeholders. 

The payoff is substantial. Organizations that break down silos consistently outperform their competitors in metrics ranging from cost management to crisis response, according to research from McKinsey & Co. They make fewer mistakes because they see the full picture, and they identify opportunities because they understand the broader impact of their decisions. 

Building sustainable resilience 

Sustainability in supply chain management has evolved far beyond environmental considerations, though those remain crucial. Today, sustainability encompasses operational and supply chain resilience, financial stability and strategic flexibility. 

To steal the term from critical IT systems, the foundation of sustainable supply chain management is what we might call "intelligent redundancy." This means moving beyond traditional single-sourcing strategies toward dual or multi-sourcing approaches that provide options without creating excessive complexity. The goal isn't to eliminate risk—that's impossible in a globally connected economy. It is to ensure that when disruption strikes, you have alternatives that can be switched to or used to temporarily load balance. 

Geopolitical risk assessment has become essential. Supply chain professionals must now think like international relations experts, understanding how trade tensions, regulatory changes and political instability might affect their networks. This requires scenario analysis that goes well beyond traditional business planning. What happens if trade relations between two key countries deteriorate? How would new environmental regulations affect supplier capabilities? What if a major freight lane becomes unavailable? 

The most sophisticated organizations use advanced analytics to model these scenarios, but the underlying principle is simple: plan for multiple futures rather than betting everything on a single prediction. This might mean maintaining supplier relationships in different geographic regions, building inventory buffers for critical components, or developing contingency logistics plans. 

Long-term planning takes on new importance in this context. While the business world often emphasizes quarterly results and annual planning cycles, sustainable supply chain management requires thinking in longer timeframes. Building supplier relationships, developing new sourcing regions and creating intelligent redundancy all take time. Organizations that start these processes only after a disruption happens find themselves perpetually behind the curve. 

The path forward 

The current environment of uncertainty, complexity and rapid technological change is now the norm. Supply chain professionals who thrive in this environment will be those who embrace strategic curiosity, break down organizational silos, and build sustainable resilience and flexibility into their operations. 

This doesn't mean abandoning cost optimization or efficiency—these remain important metrics. But they must be balanced against other considerations: flexibility, transparency, collaboration and long-term thinking. The supply chain professionals who succeed will be those who resist the urge to react quickly and instead respond thoughtfully, understanding that in a complex world, intelligence matters more than speed. 

For those willing to navigate skillfully and plan ahead, uncertainty can become opportunity, complexity can become competitive advantage, and disruption can become the catalyst for building stronger, more resilient supply chains. 

What is country of origin? 

Country of origin refers to the nation where goods were manufactured, produced, grown or underwent their last substantial transformation. This designation is crucial for determining applicable tariffs, trade duties, import/export regulations and compliance with international trade agreements. 

For logistics professionals, accurate country of origin determination affects customs clearance, documentation requirements and shipping costs. It's particularly important for products assembled from components sourced globally—the country where final assembly or significant value-addition occurs typically becomes the country of origin. 

 

About Author

Robert Cowan
Robert Cowan, Director, Supply Chain Solutions Development, Avnet Velocity®

Robert Cowan is Director of Supply Chain Solutions Development for Avnet Velocity® where he and a te...

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